Tl;dr: My products are a mix of capital and consumable for VIC and TAS. VIC has limited elective surgery to 50% atm, I used a linear model to projected Q4 VIC consumable sales and halved it as a worst case scenario. Projecting TAS sales and capital as normal, with backorders and buffer, I identified a potential gap of 100k. Calculating average success rate of quotes as 28%, and with only 15% of my current quotes required to hit 100k I can be confident I will hit this year.
Checking the numbers is a regular part of my role, and the announcement of elective surgery restrictions in Victoria will effect part of my territories performance as we close out the year.
I did some number crunching to model how this would affect my projected sales, and it also provided some useful graphs as part of the quarterly sales team presentations. Numbers have been redacted for confidentiality.
Q3 had been a good quarter for me, reflecting an effort at the hospitals to 'catch up' from previous elective surgery restrictions, new account conversions and the landing of delayed backorders that had caused me to miss Q2.
Despite the continued disruptions due to Covid, such as supply chain and freight issues, lockdowns and elective surgery restrictions, the VIC/TAS territory maintained an upward trend of sales.
The focus has been on leveraging off existing customer relationships, regional hospitals with less restrictions, providing no-cost value add such as remote education and assisting with urgent deliveries.
Whilst part of my usual analysis is a gap analysis between sales in this qtr vs target for next qtr, to give me an estimate on how many units of growth are required, this was less useful without equal opportunity to sell certain product lines. The focus this qtr is to hit the overall target.
At this stage elective surgeries have been decreased to 50%, with potentials to decrease further depending on hospitals capacities.
While the overall sales trend increasing, a majority of it is consumables, and the bulk being from VIC. The limit to elective surgeries are a threat as the bulk of my sales are from VIC consumables.
Instrument sales are pretty steady and the expected Q4 amount is an average as they are one-off capital expense items and much of the peaks and troughs are due to instrument backorders.
Using a simple linear equation we can quickly calculate a rough estimate of anticipated figures for Q4 based on the previous years consumable run rate.
I can adjust the anticipated amount by -50% for a worst case scenario that affects all of this quarter.
It can be estimated that a decrease less than 25% in the consumable run rate will have me achieving quota. This incorporates the existing $107k I am currently over as well as PPE numbers which were excluded from consumable calculations.
An expected gap of approx $100k is discovered after factoring in an additional ~$25k in backorders.
Reviewing a decrease in my quote success rate, I have an average of 28% which also reflects the slowdown due to continuous pandemic effects.
However a review of my current opportunities in #Salesforce shows that I only need to return 15% of my existing opportunities in order to make up the anticipated $100k gap created by a worst case scenario of halving all consumable sales in Q4.
This places me in a good position to hit target at the end of this year, and previous experience during last years easing of restrictions within a similar timeline had hospitals again catching up on wait lists resulting in our largest December ever.
I have strong confidence that I will be able to hit my sales targets for 2021 and will continue to focus on my product lines that have a 'hands-off' sales experience that still show upward growth despite the difficult year.
These items also provide large cost savings with no decrease in quality to assist our healthcare providers more effectively use the budget available to them.
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